Pow! Right Between The Eyes! Andy Nulman's Blog About Surprise

The Magic Touch (Theory 26)

My late Auntie Rita never took any business courses.

In fact, an immigrant from the "Old Country," she never even learned to read English.  This is why, when she went to restaurants, she always ordered the exact same thing:

"I'll have what he/she is having."

I thought of Auntie Rita over the weekend while enjoying the camaraderie and bargains at a community sidewalk sale.  Killing some time while waiting for my family to join me, I paraded by the many stalls selling everything from McFarlane Sports action figures and kitchen knick-knacks to high-end fashion and designer eyewear.  Watching the consumer behavior, I realized that despite her lack of formal education (never mind her illiteracy!), Auntie Rita at least understood one of the key, double-fisted secrets of marketing:

1) People want what they can't have

2) People want what others got

This is no great revelation.  Scarcity and envy have been a devilish duo in marketing for years.  But still, sometimes lessons need to be re-learned.  And re-lived.  Live.  Such was my Sunday.

For blocks, I watched it happen over and over.  Items ignored for a spell until touched by someone else, then becoming instantly desirable to many. It was fun to watch, but after a while I decided--perhaps a little nastily--play with people's heads and wallets a bit myself. 

I would head over to a table of goods, pick something up, look at it, handle it...and watched stealthly as others watched me.  Then, as soon as I put it down--WHAM!--somebody else picked it up. They didn't always buy, but the cause-and-effect was VERY effective.

This isn't just brick-and-mortar.  I see this work on-line all the time, most recently with a company called "Beyond The Rack."  They sell "Luxury Brands at Exclusive Prices" in three-or-four day sales periods.  Of course, the items that seem to be most desired are the ones labeled "Sold Out" or "Reserved (read: touched) by Others."

So...what does this mean? 

As marketers, we always want to sell more.  Maybe the answer is to make less.

Or at least, invest in a new breed of secret weapon: The Product Toucher.

 

Make A Wish (or "I Dream of Genie")--Theory 25

I spent an afternoon at a VC conference last week, and was depressingly reminded there about the incredible odds against any type of business success.  You've heard 'em all before:

• 95% of all start-ups fail
• 90% of all new products disappear after one year
• Most bands never make it
• Most books don't sell
• Most artists starve
• More actors work in restaurants than on stage
• ( insert your own gloomy statistic here )

So why do we do it?  Why do entrepreneurs seek capital to start businesses?  Why do writers write, do singers sing, do chefs cook?

Because of The Genie.

Here's my theory of success, particularly as it pertains to marketing.

With every product, every business, every new idea, all we are doing, ultimately, is making a wish. 

Yup.  A wish.  We should stop kidding ourselves, we have no control over the outcome.  No matter how much research we do, no matter how diligently we plan, no matter how financially savvy our projections, once we press the "Go" button and launch, the fate of our endeavor is in the hands of a greater power.

That power is what I call "The Genie."

Well, it's WHO I call The Genie, actually, as The Genie is that one person whose endorsement, whose action on your behalf, whose belief in what you've done will be enough to start what Malcolm Gladwell coined "The Tipping Point."  Even if a company, an organization, a conglomerate does the eventual pushing, it's always one person within it who was the catalyst to get it moving.

That's The Genie.  Talk about One-to-One marketing!

Brian Govern is The Genie for the Three-Wolf Moon T-Shirt.  In the film (and book) The Soloist,  journalist Steve Lopez is The Genie for emotionally-challenged cello prodigy Nathaniel Ayers.  Maverick VC Roger McNamee is The Genie for Palm.  By making us a mobile video partner, Paul Palmieri of Verizon Wireless was The Genie to Airborne Mobile back in the rocky days of 2001.  Some Pfizer scientist who noticed the strange side-effect of the failed UK-92,480 drug was The Genie for Viagra. Oprah has been The Genie to too many people to count.

But you don't need to be powerful, or well-placed; anyone can be The Genie.  (I really should say The Genies plural, as throughout the lifecycle of a business, a product or a career, there could be--should be!--many of 'em.)  It could be a blogger.  A housewife.  A college student.  A preacher. An enemy.  You just never know in advance. You never know who's reading, who's watching, who's listening, who just happens to be in the right place at the right time for you.

So why do we market?  To reach this Genie.  Whoever it may be.

It's why we advertise, why we reach out to bloggers, why we Tweet, why we spend money devising crafty PR stunts, why we sponsor events, why we do media tours, why we bust our ass and work late and on weekends: to increase our chances of meeting The Genie.  Because the encounter is never guaranteed.

Meeting The Genie is akin to a raffle. Do nothing, you have no chance.  Buy one ticket, you have one chance.  Buy 100 tickets, and you increase your probability 100-fold.  It's rare that The Genie will come to you. So do the work.  The math is simple.  It's the black-box outcome process that's complicated.

So this is why we market.  And keep marketing.  And why VCs still invest.  And why entrepreneurs bleed, sweat and cry.  All an attempt to meet our version of The Genie. 

You know, to be very frank with you all, that's why I wrote this blog post. 

I've had this idea kicking around my head for weeks.  I spent a couple of late Saturday hours putting it into words.  Now that it's done, I put it out there.  So, will it be an influential post, passed around virally, hailed for its wisdom?  Will it spark debate and a legion of followers?  Will the concept become part of the marketing lexicon? 

Or will it be ignored...amusing a small audience slightly before they go onto their next blog in search of entertainment and enlightenment?

Let's see.

Let's test the theory.

Let's see if this post finds its Genie.

How To Pow!--Ignore The Consensus (Theory 24)

Was asked a provocative interview question by the shinin' bright Paul Williams of The Idea Sandbox. 

As much as I dug his question, I dug my answer to it even more.  Hope you will, too.

Q) So... how do you really know if what you're doing is 'Surprising' or Pow-worthy? Many companies think their services or products or marketing is awesome... when it's really humdrum. Is there a b.s. rule-of-thumb you can offer?

A) There's an easy barometer: Ignore the consensus. 

Here's what I mean:  If the proposed idea--any one!--is universally adopted and admired within your company, you know it's not just humdrum, but a loser.  Surprising ideas shock, challenge and enrage the public, but usually start their "dirty work" inside company walls.

That said, you know you've got something good when your own colleagues get pissed off at it, bark "I won't put my name on that!" or, better yet, threaten to quit because of it.  Every time I see a great Surprising marketing move, I say to myself "I wonder who quit or got fired over that one?"

Thoughts Spawned by "The Unthinkable"

Spent last weekend devouring Joshua Cooper Ramo's "The Age of the Unthinkable."  Joshua is way smarter than anyone has a right to be, and while he frowns on those who render the complex and intricate into the simple and easily-explained, he does just that with such heady subjects as the new world order and the public policy needed to deal with it. 

Yeah, my usual weekend reading.  Can't wait to get back to it later today. 

So much of what Joshua, a former high-ranking editor at Time Magazine, has to say is brain-expanding, but given this blog's raison d'etre, this passage, about the credentials needed for today's foreign policy careers, was particularly appropos (bullets mine):

• "(They) should be able to speak and think in revolutionary terms.
• "They should have expertise in some area of the world where fast change and unpredictability are the dominant facts of life.
• "They should have mastered the essential skill of the next fifty years: crisis managment.
• "Most of all, however, we need policy makers and thinkers who have that intuitive revolutionary feel for the inescapable demands of innovation."

For years, one of the theories I've espoused is that proactivity is overrated and that being reactive is not just underrated, but the more desirable and essential skill, particularly these days.  How does one plan in a world of increasing unpredictable chaos?  Well, happy to see these thoughts valdated and vindicated by someone way wiser than yours truly.

And now, back to the Ramo opus...

Who Needs Credibilty? (Theory 23)

Okay folks and FOPs, the lesson today is a brief, but simple one.

But first, as always is the case with me, a little preamble.

I’m currently in the throes of promoting my book “Pow! Right Between The Eyes!  Profiting From the Power of Surprise,” and one of the tasks foisted upon authors in the promotional process is the penning of your-book’s-subject-related Op-Ed pieces for magazines and influential websites.

So…how do I put this in a nice way?  Let’s say that one such Op-Ed piece—about applying Surprise Marketing tactics to an industry that will stay unnamed to protect the guilty—was refused by an editor on the grounds that “in the (unnamed) industry, you have no credibility.”

No credibility? 

No credibility?

Hey babe, I’ve got something WAY better than credibility…

I’ve got what your industry, what EVERY industry, needs (especially these days).

Forget credibility..

I’ve got INcredibility!

That, my friends, is the lesson.

The promise of a loud, eye-popping, surprising tomorrow trumps the achievements of one’s past…no matter how big they are. (If this were NOT the case, John McCain would now be President.)

Last week, I spoke to a university marketing class.  These 100 or so leaders of tomorrow were being “taught” by a guy with LOADS of credibility.  He had written academic papers and had multiple degrees.  But he was dull as cold porridge.  Kids were plucking arm hairs and jabbing themselves with sharp instruments just to stay awake.   They weren’t learning anything; they were trying to maintain consciousness until the class came to a merciful end.

Credibility is overrated.  It’s yesterday’s news.

Really now, who cares where you’ve been?  Does it matter? As they say in the fine print disclaimer of every investment prospectus: “Past performance is not indicative of future results.”  And given the current state of the investment industry…well, you get my drift.

These days, we all live in the present, and have access to the same amount of influence.  A student video can overshadow a Hollywood blockbuster.  A blog post can overthrow a government. As Crosby, Stills and Nash sang: “Don’t let the past / remind us of what we are not now.” 

These days, it’s all about where you’re gonna go.  And, trust me, you’re gonna go further if you’re Incredible.

This, I know from experience.

Just kidding.

The DNA of Surprise: MIS-managing Expectations (Theory 22)

I've cracked the code.

I've mentioned a number of times here in this blog, and in my upcoming Pow! book, how closely related Surprise is to humor.  Friday's post, the cognitive psyche experiment sent to me by Adam Lawrence, got me to thinking about it again, and I realized that the ol' "fork in the road" theory of joke-writing is at the core of the Surprise DNA.

To quote myself from the aforementioned book:

"In essence, it works like this.  Every joke begins as a journey.  The 'teller' takes their audience by the hand and leads them down a playful path.  They walk for a bit ('the set-up') until they reach a juncture, the proverbial 'fork in the road.' 

At that point, the teller subtly offers the audience a sneak peek at their ultimate destination; that place in the distance at the end of the right-hand turn. 

But the humor comes when the teller suddenly and abruptly hauls the audience the other way, taking the left-hand turn down the unexpected route, (also known as 'the punch line')."

So what does this mean?  It means that to create Surprise, what you have to do is go against the grain of conventional wisdom and "MIS-manage Expectations."

Let me put it another, more visual way.  Check out the rudimentary diagram below:

The black line is the path where people think they're going.  The red line is where you are actually taking them.  The inflection point of Pow!, the white P, is that proverbial fork, the point where Surprise actually happens.

Simple, ain't it? 

Takes but a few seconds to learn.

But, alas, a lifetime to master.

Theory 21 and Question #1--Giving The Gift (A Lesson From Len)

My friend Len Blum is a former screenwriter (Private Parts, The Pink Panther to name just two) and a current yoga instructor.  He's also one of the wisest guys I know...and I mean that not in a Mafioso way.

At lunch last week, Len's zen-like manner managed to sum up in six words the solution to the age old problem: how do I sell something?

Before enlightening you, let me put everything into context.  We were discussing a video project he had pitched to an author, who's one and only question to Len was the succinct: "Will it sell books?"

Len's answer to him was simple, and brutally honest:  "I don't know."

That's not the enlightening part.

But as a guy who is overseeing four new product initiatives at Airborne Mobile, not to mention anxiously awaiting the February launch of my oft-mentioned Pow! book, the obsession on how to best sell something--and better still, to know how it will sell in advance--eats away at me incessantly.

So here's what Len said that threw me for a loop:  If you really want to know if what you have is going to sell, ask yourself this:

"WHAT IS THE GIFT YOU GIVE?"

It's really that simple, that profound, and that difficult.  All in one.

What are you giving your customer, your client, your audience, that they will un-wrap?  That they will cherish?  That they will display and show others?  That they will care about?

The gift is not a feature, or a gimmick, or an add-on.  It's the core of the product or service itself.  It's the thing that bonds it to someone who will buy it. And no matter if you're selling something that can slide into a wallet or be too big for an airplane hangar, the gift is not the physicality, but the intangible. 

Too often, we get caught up in systems.  In what has worked before.  In process.  But that was then.  This is now.  And as our financial markets show us, even when we know, we never really learn.

Taking this one step further, it's one of the key integral questions of business (the other two will be the subject of future posts...and perhaps the basis of my next book).  So before you make your next move, no matter what you're selling, ask yourself Question #1:  What is the gift you give?

And if you're not delighted with the answer...you'd better keep shopping

Theory 20--Sometimes, It Ain't What You Are, But What You Ain't

Arrrgggh!  I left my camera in the hotel.  Too bad, because on a cab ride to Massey Hall in Toronto, I passed by a superb sign.  While I can't do the colors and layout justice, I think the words alone will suffice.  The sign was for one of the dozens of Karaoke bars that line Yonge Street, but the sign for this one read:

"Guaranteed!
100% Celine Dion-free Zone!"

Hilarious and biting, but more importantly,it got me thinking.  I don't know if the proprietor of said club even realizes it, but this is great Surprise marketing, as sometimes, what you aren't is more important than what you are.

Canadians realized this conundrum many years ago.  With lack of a strong national identity, the best its denizens could come up with for a long time was "We are not American."  While simultaneously self-deprecating and somewhat insulting, it served its countrymen well, particularly those traveling overseas.

The best, and most classic, "What We Ain't" marketing example I can think of is the soft-drink 7-Up.  What is 7-Up?  The Un-Cola, right?  Well, it was for years, and carved out a niche against the brown behemoths of Coke and Pepsi. 

These days though, it's just another lemon-lime drink.  According to its website, it has a "famously crisp, refreshing taste" of "100% Natural Flavors!" It may taste great, but you also need to down a coffee or two to keep you awake after that most dreary and common of marketing descriptions. (You can't believe how dull the entire site is; I've seen laundry detergents and lip balms with more exciting marketing messages.)

What 7-Up is can never be as exciting as what it's not.  The same may go for your company or your product.  But it takes big buckets of guts to adopt this counter-intuitive stance, as it admits front-and-center that your own persona is little to crow about. (Think about Richard Nixon.  He never said "I am an honest man!"; he said "I am not a crook.")

Trust me though; although this tactic may put you on the defensive, and bring your competition into your backyard...

It's better to be remembered
for what you're not,
than to be forgotten
for what you are.

Theory 18--Digital Love Vs. Physical Gifts

Taking three vacation days off this week the best way I know how--speaking to people who actually want to listen. 

Like last year's Spring Break when I spoke alongside Tony Robbins, Vicente Fox, Jim Fannin, Kenneth Cole and others, this week I am off to Halifax to celebrate innovation with the Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture and Fisheries (lock up the lobster folks, Andy's back in town!) and then onto Toronto where the Canadian Hotel Marketing and Sales Executives are subjected to my ranting and raving.

That said, here's something that's been on my mind for a while.

As all faithful FOPs know, I public speak often,  and each time I do, the kind people for whom I do usually express gratitude by loading me up with well-meaning branded gifts like t-shirts, business card holders, digital clocks, tote bags and the like.

And while these tokens of appreciation are indeed appreciated, I have two confessions to make:

1) I don't need them.
2) I don't want them.

And I suspect most other speakers would say the same about the parting gifts imparted upon them, as well. 

Harsh?  Perhaps, but stay with me for a second. 

Let's face it, despite my gratitude for my hosts' kind offerings, there aren't enough days in the year to wear all the promo clothing I get from these engagements, I have more business card cases than I do business cards...well, you get my drift.  So if I may be so bold, to all those for whom I will speak in the future, may I suggest the following:

Show me the love.

What I mean by that is instead of giving me a tangible tchotchke, give a donation to a charity of my choice.  Or one of your choice.  Or one at random.  Whichever way you choose, people continue to benefit from my words and your fine decision of sharing them with your audience.

Wait.  I'm not done. 

Not to be greedy, but in this digital day and age, you can continue to spread warmth by sending some link love my way.  Tell your email list what a great job I did (if I did).  Share the news about the exciting breakthroughs at Airborne Mobile on the front page of your website. Post some photos of our time together and send your folks to learn more about me at either Airborne or right here.

Everybody wins.  You keep your costs down, I get to interact with your logo and company spirit long after a t-shirt would've frayed into nothingness, and buzz builds for all of us.

Hmmm...virtual tokens of appreciation.  Perhaps that's a topic for a new speech... 

 

Infoverflow and SNAM

I was at one of those angel investor/new entrepreneur networking events last week, and while the evening was indeed a pleasant and interesting one, there was a disproportionate amount of "I wanna start a social network" chatter amongst those pitching ideas. 

I can understand why, given the buzz around Facebook, LinkedIn et al, but really...how many social networks does one really need in their "social graph"?  Last weekend (!!!) alone I was asked to join three new ones I had never heard of before, starting with the invitation-only Blue Chip Expert.

(Perhaps it's time to revive an old idea Garner and I had way back in February of 2000.  At the time, a company called ICraveTV.com was making all sorts of noise by controversially snapping up the signals of TV channels and re-broadcasting over the net for free. We came up with--tongue-in-cheekly--a site called "ICraveICraveTV.com," which threatened to RE-re-broadcast the TV channels by stealing the ICraveTV.com signal. "ICraveTV is the first generation of Internet parasites," our press release read.  "We're the next."  So maybe there's a Valley VC who is interested in funding a truly useful new social network, one whose raison d'etre is simply to manage all your OTHER  social networks.  Stranger concepts have been financed...)

So to entrepreneurs panning for gold in the social network swamps, I offer this advice:

Instead of trying to create yet another one of 'em, my advice would be to "swim where the fish are" and jump into the Facebook widget pool...but create one with a difference; one whose job it would be to manage the infoverflow (a term I just coined, thank you very much!)of the NewsFeed page. 

While NewsFeed does indeed provide an erstwhile view into the activities of one's group of friends (most notably, notifying you of the widgets they have chosen to use), the majority of the stuff listed falls into a category of, to be polite, "Well, good for you, but..." 

So if one wants to monetize Facebook real fast, forget the much-maligned Beacon.  What Facebook really needs is an "Anti-social Network" widget; an "I Don't Give A Damn" filter called Rat's Ass that would zap and forever eliminate those trite messages of:

"Vote for My Video!" or
"You Wanna Play Dinner Theatre Trivia?" or
"Hot Potato Request" or
"21 of Your Friends Has (sic) Received a New FunWall Post!" or

...I could go on forever.  But that would just exacerbate the point, wouldn't it?

So go get 'em.  You'll make a fortune eliminating SNAM (Social Network SPAM).

Just don't forget me when you go public or sell out to the hedgies...

Pump Up Your Volume

Last week, I promised you a primer on how to stand out.  But before I give it to y'all, let me explain from whence it comes. 

Back in April, I was one of 100 bloggers worldwide asked by Drew McLellan and Gavin Heaton (two of the People I Dig listed at left) to be part of a collaborative book project called The Age of Conversation.  We were given free reign to write what we wanted, as long as our "chapter" focused on communicating with others. 

Well, given the focus of my entire life, never mind just this here blog, I decided to hone in on what has brought me to this point--the ability to shout (without pissing too many people off).  If you dig the following, you'd be well-served by buying the book, as there are 99 more such heartfelt and headspilled pieces within it.

So, without any further ado, here's my 400-word opus.  Turn up the volume.  And repeat often.

-------------------------------------------

HOW TO SHOUT!

All our lives, we’ve been told to keep quiet. 

As babies, we’re told to “Hush,” to stop crying.

As kids, we’re told that we should be seen, and not heard.

Even as adults, the e-world’s rules of etiquette frown on EXCESSIVE USE OF CAPITALS lest it disturb all the other poor ones-and-zeroes that make up our emails.

Well, this “minifesto” explodes the notion that silence is golden.  In fact, to borrow the famous anti-aids slogan, to effectively converse in today’s all-pervasive multi-media environment, Silence = Death.

Imagine how ineffective Martin Luther King would be had he whispered “Shhhh…I have a dream.” Would art thieves continue to pursue Edvard Munsch’s “The Sigh”? And would Billy Idol have had as big a hit with the song “Rebel Murmur”?

For years, the art of shouting (yes, the ART) has endured a bad rap… probably because those who used it most are crass, aggressive boors.  It’s time to break that stigma. Just like paint can be used to create a masterpiece or a mess, when in the right hands, shouting is a deft, expressive tool.

Consider conversation to be shades of black, white and grey; shouting is the color. 

If conversation is made up of periods, commas and the occasional semicolon, shouting is the exclamation mark.

Like singing, great SHOUTS come from the gut, not the throat. They are emotional, not rational; inspired, not contrived.

Shouting is not about making yourself heard. It’s about making yourself interesting. And making yourself into someone people will want to converse with.

And shouting doesn’t necessarily mean pissing people off. It doesn’t necessarily mean speaking, either. Used properly, a raised eyebrow can be louder than a jackhammer. It’s all about context, and the courage to stand out from the norm.

Yup, it could still backfire. Think of Howard Dean’s guttural yelp during 2004’s Presidential race. There’s a fine line between raw emotion and madness. But who’d you rather have in the White House today—screamin’ Dean, or quiet, condescending Bush?

So shout, shout, let it all out. Don’t be afraid to live life loud. Puff up your chest when you walk into a room. Stand out, don’t fit in. Do it with your clothes, your accessories. A wallet (brown, boring) can hold credit cards, or (Paul Smith-striped) make a statement.

Let everything you have scream your name and establish your personal brand as one of animal magnetism.

ROARRRRRR!

Theory 15--The Eel Effect (Slippery, Electric & Wiggly)

I've been asked to speak to a class of graduating business students at my old school (sounds like a Steely Dan song, but I digress). 

This is a common occurrence at this time of year, but unlike most other times I've been asked, this one came with a special condition.

The condition was a simple one--given the rise of Airborne, this speech would have to provide special advice to budding entrepreneurs "who don't want to work for some 800-pound gorilla company"; in other words, a large behemoth that has 240,000 employees in 24,000 countries and tries to stomp all over the competition...and everybody else.

So I got to thinking: What's the antithesis of an 800-pound gorilla? What member of the collective zoology can be recruited to symbolize the traits and tenacity needed to start something from scratch, keep at it, and (well, I had to get the spirit of Pow! in there somehow) manage to Surprise a few people along the way?

Like half a Noah, I scraped the animal kingdom inside and out, from aardvarks to zebras and everywhere within, looking for the perfect fit.  And I was stumped...until last night when I had some takeout sushi before my workout. 

And there it was...laid out on a cot of rice, held in place by a ring of seaweed.

The eel.

What a revelation! Just think about it.  Here's a fish that looks like a giant worm, but acts more like a snake.  Despite their relatively dull appearance, these slippery guys are mean monkey-mofos; almost all eels are predators, and if hungry enough, will even eat their own family.  The electric eel variety are capable of generating powerful shocks, which they use for both hunting and self-defense. Ouch.

And although they lack pelvic fins and the associated skeletal structures common to their fish brethren, eels manage to rip through the water at speeds up to 30 km/hour. 

No ivory towers for these guys.  The CEO sharks may get their own week of glory on the Discovery Channel, but it's the eels who are the unsung streetfighters.

So let's compare the qualities common to both the entrepreneur and the eel:

--Deceptively dangerous
--Fast as hell
--Hungry
--Tough
--Hard to catch (despite the sushi...)

The most important factor though, and greatest similarity between eel and entrepreneur, is HOW they move. 

As mentioned before, the eel is a speedy little critter.  It knows where it wants to go, and gets there fast.

But NEVER in a straight line.

The wiggle of the eel is an important part of is physiology and its survival.  Same with an entrepreneur.  Having your eyes on the prize, but not being glued to a set roadmap and direction, is what separates the successes from the failures.

True entrepreneurs roll with the punches...and there are many.  Markets swing, tastes change and general shift just happens.  True entrepreneurs can change direction often and rapidly, without losing sight of where they're going. 

And how to get back there if they're knocked wildly off course. 

And how to find a new place to go if the original destination is blocked.

Just like the eels do it.

Obviously, I still have to add to the speech, but at least I have found a mascot for entrepreneurs everywhere. (One that shares a common initial to boot!)   

I'm no fool though.  I accept that on the corporate battlefield, an 800-pound gorilla can still stomp all over an eel.

Provided, of course, it can actually catch one...

Theory 14--The Bike/Biz Cycle Continues.

As a follow-up to yesterday's Business/Cycling parable, here's what I learned on today's 40 kilometer roller-coaster ride:

Road conditions are like the people you work with, and the way they work together.  Doesn't matter what direction you're going--Uphill, Downhill or Straightaway--the make-up of the road is usually the primary deciding factor in the enjoyment of yourjourney.

A paved road is like a true, trustworthy team, working together to make your ride a pleasant one. Everything works better--grip, gear shifting, mood--when the road beneath you is smooth. 

On the other hand, rocky roads are just that. Yeah, they may hide behind the sexy Italian alias "Strada Bianca," but on dysfunctional, uneven, sand-and-stone terrain, you're on your own at all times.  Uphill is suddenly twice the effort, Downhill almost works against you, and even the steady flow of the Straightaway can be upended in a Tuscan second by a mere, nastily-placed pebble.  Treachory abounds in every direction.

Trouble in the office?  Forget the corporate shrink or consultant. Instead, invest in some molten blacktop...and a steamroller.

Theory 13--Why Cycling is Like Business

After a few days pedaling through the Himalayas--oops, sorry,  make that the rolling "hills" of Italy's Tuscany district--I have come to a stark corporate realization:

     Cycling is just like business.

This metaphor smacked me right between the cheeks while sucking back a Gatorade after yet another three kilometer climb in the smelter-like sun.  As a guy who has helped build two prosperous enterprises from less than zero,  and is just being introduced into the wonderous up-and-down world of long-distance cycling,  the similarities between the two are striking.

To explain, consider that Tuscany cycling offers you three choices of direction--the strain of Uphill, the ease of Downhill, and the relative peace of the Straightaway.

To me, UPHILL can be likened to being a start-up or being embroiled in some sort of crisis; your full focus is given to getting to the point where it's not so hard anymore. You don't even notice the gorgeous view, your surroudings, or even the passage of time. You just put your head down and concentrate almost exclusively on pumping your legs until you reach the top. Your speed is consistent, your movement a little wobbly, and if you don't keep going, you're gonna fall over.

Compare that to the ease of flying DOWNHILL, which I liken to a business that's doing so well it almost runs itself.  Effortless, you almost feel like a passenger...but this is where the most dramatic and costly mistakes can be made and your best chance for a sobering crash.  The ride  almost becomes too easy.  You think you're invincible,  get cocky and take your eyes off the road.  Watch out. The road can change at any second. Cars pull out of hidden driveways. People and animals pop out from nowhere. That downhill path can be interrupted violently at any time by things you cannot see.  Enjoy the ride, but don't forget to anticipate what may be lying in wait.

Then there's the all-too-rare STRAIGHTAWAY.  It's not nearly as exhilarating as the Downhill rush of a booming biz, but also not as exhausting as the Uphill pull of a start-up or a crisis. This is where effort and reward are at their most equal. The goal here is one of efficiency. You don't want to exert one more iota of energy than you need to. Operation of the machine--in my case now, my gearing mechanism-- at its optimum level is paramount. The Straightaway gives you the most time to think, plan and prepare for one of the two extremes you just know are coming. 

So there you have it. Roadside wisdom from the gates of Volterra. To close, one last comparison between business and cycling:

No matter how good you are at what you do, from time to time,  you will still have to deal with a little pain in the ass.

Theory 12--Hillary Ignites The Surprise Campaign

Was watching CNN while working out at the gym, and was amazed to see that people are STILL talking about the Hillary Clinton Sopranos-parody video. (If you're one of the 17 people left who still haven't seen it, click the previous link.)

The all-news network called this "The start of the YouTube Campaign," but the way I see it, the medium is not the message here.

Frankly, this is the start of something even bigger.

This is the start
of the
SURPRISE
CAMPAIGN

Think about it.  YouTube and politicians is almost old hat.  John Edwards used it to announce his candidacy, and in the process, nearly anesthetized half the nation.  Politicians of all stripes all over the earth are not just using YouTube, they're MIS-USING YouTube by polluting it with the same ol' crapola they use on stump speeches in Kiwanis Clubs and community halls.  They are falling victim to what Marshall McLuhan bemoaned as imposing "Form of the old on content of the new."  Wow!  Another talking head saying things I don't believe!

So back to Hillary's video.  Love it, hate it, be embarrassed by it...who cares?  At least people are talking about what Hilary and Bill did.  It was a complete shock, Pow! to the second power by not just doing something unexpected,  but by linking it to one of the great pop culture moments of all time.

So, as FOPs know well, this COULD be the start of something big.  Everyone is mumbling the classic Battle Cries of Surprise, "Well, I Never" and "What Will They Think of Next?"  I guarantee the folks over at the Barack Obama  headquarters are running around like the proverbial headless chickens planning their next move; most likely "Let's do a funky YouTube video, too!" 

But pretty soon, parody YouTube videos from politicians will be old hat.  Been there, done that, linked to the URL.  And it'll be up to someone to shock the system once again.

The world is bored with the standard political process. They 're nonplussed by those tacky attack ads, don't believe the promises, and are bored by the speeches. No wonder voting levels are in a fast downward spiral. 

The only thing left to wake us up from this coma is a Surprise.  Or, more effectively, a continual flow of them.

What Hillary did was change the game.  You probably don't see this now, but this is as seismic a shift as the televising of the Nixon-Kennedy debates.

Mark my words.  And come see me in a few years.

Theory 11--Social Retailing (or Stores 'R' Us)

Perhaps Time Magazine's Lev Grossman put it best when he said:

"When Amazon.com announced its plan to open a digital music store to sell MP3s, you had to really work to get excited about it. It's hard to think of a press release that would be less surprising. At this rate, my 3-year-old daughter will be opening a digital music store pretty soon."

I've seen the future of retailing, and it is us.  Or, put another way:

STORES 'R' US

Mix the reach of the Web with tools like PayPal and the social graphing spirit of Facebook and you've got the new paradigm--we are all shopkeepers. 

Never mind Social Networking, the big bucks are gonna be in Social Retailing.

Terry McBride, the visionary behind Nettwerk Music Group outlined the new world of music retailing last year at Vancouver's VidFest when he said:

"The key element
to music retailing
is crowdsourcing."

He went onto paint a picture where fans would not only submit and vote on poster design, but edit raw material into tracks and videos (the best of which would be selected by the artist for release).  The coup-de-grace though, was the way in which this new musical content would all be sold.  "Who's opinion are you going to trust more?" he asked.  "Some store, or one of your influential, cool friends?"

This guy was ahead of the game by months (which is eons in Web 2.0 time, which is moving so fast it's now being called Web 2.5 or 3.0 depending on your timezone), a span that has brought us innovations like Justin Timberlake's Burnlounge ("The World's First Fan-Driven Digital Download Community") and Seattle's MOD Systems, which offers a kiosk that lets people burn music and movies while they wait...anywhere.

"Entertainment content is a $35 billion business," says MOD's Chairman Anthony Bay, "and there isn't enough shelf space to support the breadth of catalog."

Unless, of course, it's virtual.  So now your basement, your kitchen, your carwash, your drycleaner can all be superstores like the late Tower Records, Sam Goodys or Sam The Record Man (ask your parents).

Ironically, the Time quote above came from an article entitled "The Battle Over Music Piracy."   And  perhaps, inadvertently, Lev Grossman's three-year-old daughter holds the solution to the battle in her teeny hands.

The best way to combat piracy, it seems, is to make entrepreneurs, not crooks, out of us all.

Theory 10--Balls vs. Brains

So, over the past few weeks, I've spoken at--and sat through--a few industry conferences, and spent the majority of travel time getting to-and-from 'em reading my usual assortment of biz books, marketing magazines and other things I can't think of an alliteration for. 

And during a panel session of some very high-powered execs, I had a Pow! epiphany.  Put ever-so-simply, it is the answer to the eternal battle of business:

BALLS
BEAT
BRAINS

Smart people, while incredibly valuable, won't change the world.  They will rule it and run it, but essentially, they will do so for the guy or girl with enough guts to do something they never would in a cajillion years. 

It seems to be standard operating procedure in business that eventually, a successful company grows out of the control of the entrepreneur who started it, and the call goes out for "Professional Management!" to save the day.  Not that this is bad, but without the (now) out-of-their-league visionary who started it, there would be no business to professionally manage.

Note that there are no "Professional Entrepreneurs."  Unlike management, it is not a "skill" that can be "learned"; it is a "calling" that must be heeded.  Again and again and again. 

All this to say that as I sat in a room, listening to three incredibly smart captains of industry, I was impressed with their knowledge but depressed with their lack of vision, ideas or leadership.  They were great at making excuses for what wasn't working, but offered no solutions for the future.

Contrast that to a couple of relatively unkempt, wide-eyed individuals who laid out blueprints for tomorrow a little earlier in the day.  Once they were done, you had to beg people to come back into the ballroom for the next panel because the line-up to sign up for the future had begun spontaneously and instantaneously.

Think about this the next time someone inspires  you.  Is it the smartest person in the room?  Or the most courageous? 

Einstein said that "Imagination is more important than knowledge."

And as smart as he was, he had even bigger balls.

 

Theory 9--Theory Why

People ask "Why?" all the time.

Sometimes--perhaps not often enough--there is no "Why."

"Just 'cuz" may be the only reason.

"Because" doesn't always have to be followed with explanation.

Sometimes "Because" is strong enough to stand on its own.

In generating Surprise,

BECAUSE IS THE NEW WHY

Why do I say that?

Because.

Theory 8--Mapping Out Tomorrow

My son Aidan turned me onto the promotion that the United States Postal Service is doing with Star Wars, a new millennium revisit of the thin, young Elvis vs. old, fat Elvis stamp debate, I suppose.

More interesting than the actual Rebel vs. Galactic vote was the list of other "commemorative stamps" that the USPS is releasing in '07; everyone from Ella Fitzgerald and Jimmy Stewart to Peter Pan and The Incredible Hulk will be immortalized on a postage stamp this year. 

And that got me to thinking...and since I've been overdue in unleashing yet another one of my theories upon the blogosphere, here's the next one:

Products made obsolete by technology
are resurrected by collectibility

Commemorative stamps are far from new, but with the advent of email, IM, texting and other instant digital communication, they are more vital than ever to the bottom lines of postal services all over the world.  I couldn't track down the exact percentage of revenue, but with more than 20 million stamp collectors in the USA alone, you know that these guys have become more important a target to the USPS than the middle American, "send a letter to Mom & Pop" market.

Stamps are just one product caught in this utility-to-collectibility paradigm shift.  Milk bottles, to name just one, have gone from the ubiquity of our front doorsteps to the display cases of antique stores (not to mention the tables of weekend collector shows and the pages of collector magazines).

So what's next?  Well if I were an investor (actually, I am in some cases), I would lay some cash down on those gas station roadmaps.  GPS systems have replaced 'em in cars, and Google Maps and Mapquest have taken the art of driving directions to an extreme, granular level.

Think I'm off the beaten track with this one?  Well, what goes around comes around.  When--not IF--this happens, it will be the second coming for maps.  Check out the walloping prices on these old sea-faring charts at New York's Martayan Lan...then head to your nearest Shell or Chevron and start loading up on tomorrow.

While you're at it, you can send one to me as a thank you commission. 

And use the Rebel stamp...

Theory 7--How To Sell Art (or Anything Else) Better

As most FOPs know, I collect contemporary art.  I love being around it, and buy way too much of it. 

But even though I enjoy spending an inordinate amount of time in galleries, something has always bugged me about the way art is sold.  No matter how nicely you're treated, an intimidation factor always seems to creep into the process.  You're not just buying a painting or sculpture...you are (now say this with me out loud) "purr-chass-ink a whork of ahhht."  Phew...that's a mouthful.

Maybe Deborah Linke has the answer.  Her full-time gig is selling and marketing her husband Harold's bronze sculptures, and her theory, while developed for her better half, actually works Surprisingly well as a saving grace for the entire art world. She says:

"People fall in love with these pieces.
It's more like an adoption than a sale."

A Pow! moment to hang on your wall. 

While I've heard of people coming into galleries with a few million bucks and filling a home's empty spaces as if they were making a grocery order, most people do indeed "fall in love" with the pieces they buy.  It's like picking out a puppy at the SPCA; something special catches your eye, touches your heart, and becomes a part of your home and your life. 

That said, the art world needs to jump on this and make the purchase process more like adding a member to your family than like buying a mutual fund, people would be more comfortable with it and thus...

Lemme take this one step further.  I like to meet the artists I buy from (check out this earlier post about Patrick Hughes, or the picture below of my family and I with Steve Kaufman at the Masters Gallery in Vail after we bought his portrait of Andy Warhol).  To me, it adds value to the art and more importantly, provides great stories that will bring the piece alive for years to come. 

While, for geographic reasons, a face-to-face visit isn't always possible, why not a quick phone call?  A hand-written note?  Really now, on any given day, how many pieces does even today's most popular artist sell?  Imagine the value-add (and the additional sales) that would come with a personal thank you from the creator him-or-herself?  And if people are laying down $25,000 or more for a print from Sol LeWit or Damien Hirst or Chuck Close, I think they deserve a little personal touch point.

Lemme take this one step further.  I never met an art collector who doesn't want to meet other collectors, show off their stuff, learn about new artists, etc.  Yet the aspects of "community," the driving force behind Web 2.0 (and its multi-billion-dollar babies like Google, YouTube, MySpace and the like), are sadly missing from the gaggle of galleries.  Over and above the "adoption" process, give the "new families" a place to congregate and compare, be it virtual or physical.  Kinda like a dog run or a play group...but with better coffee.

And the more I think of it, perhaps Deborah's "Adoption" doctrine can be layered upon just about any relatively upscale retail sector.   

Touch the heart, feed the head...and you'll make it easier to open the wallet.

Theory 6--It's ALL User-Generated Content!

Twas at a marketing dinner meeting with a client last week, and at one point during a debate about user-generated content, a particularly perky member of the gathering effervescently enthused:

"Never before in the history of media have users been so important in the creation of content!"'

Not wanting to be rude, or lose the client, I held my tongue (with a forceps!), but this is what was running through my head:

All content
starts out
as user-generated!

As a term, User-Generated Content is more than a mere buzzword; it's become the messiah of media, a panacea for all our problems. Users will save our businesses!  They will design our products, write our ads, sing our jingles and develop the movies we will fight to place our products within! 

Oh puh-leeeze!  Stop me before I shoot someone, videotape the murder, upload it to YouTube, win a "Most BadAss Video" contest sponsored by Axe Deodorant and get to open for 50 Cent on his next tour.

The difference with content today IS NOT the people creating it; the difference is the wealth and breadth of the platforms they now have available to distribute it.

Let's think about this for a second. We'll use The Beatles as an example. 

Before they were the world's best-selling  and most influential pop artists, they were  four lads from Liverpool, playing on the back of flatbed trucks, at outdoor block parties, at the local coffee house...anywhere they could to be seen and get their songs heard.  The Cavern Club was their YouTube; the local church basement talent show their American Idol.  Buzz builds, they're seen by Brian Epstein, he signs them to a management contract and the rest is history.  Suddenly, swarms of  other "users" pop up all over the world, trying to follow in their footsteps.  It's the way of showbiz.

The same story goes for virtually any artist of any type:

Before they were them,
they were one of us.

• Andy Warhol was a graphic designer from Pittsburgh (glamorous, huh?).
• Stephen King was a high school English teacher living in a trailer in Maine, writing short stories for pulp-fiction men's mags to make ends meet.
• Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak were two geeky kids tinkering around in a garage.
• Guy Laliberte, the genius behind Cirque du Soleil, was a street performer, walking on stilts, eating fire and playing the accordion(!!!).
• Every superstar athlete was the adorable five-year-old tyke in the uniform two sizes too big. 

I could go on forever. 

There's a chasm we all cross on our way from "amateur" to "professional."  Granted, these days the lines have blurred somewhat (this blog being a prime example), but while the ways and means we use to MAKE that transition have become more technically advanced and readily available, the fact remains that those who actually "use" them have remained the same.  They are you, and me, and that kid down the street who will one day sell out arenas across the country.

So to my bubbly client, let me say that in the history of content creation, it has ALWAYS been generated by users.  The Surprise factor in all this is when one of us actually crosses the chasm.  Society's superstars are just users on steroids (amongst other substances...).

What'll be REALLY different, and downright scary, is when content is generated by something OTHER than users (like machines, rendering us irrelevant).  Thankfully, even the most advanced high-tech art (see the brilliant work of Joshua Davis, for example), needs one of us.

For now...

Theory 5--The Lubricant To Yes

Why do I love Surprise marketing so much?

Because it’s the lubricant to “Yes.”

There’s nothing more that marketers want to hear than that word. You can yammer along about customer retention, building community, unaided recall, blah, blah, effin’-blah all you want, but no other term really matters.

It’s the word with the most buzz—Yes.

But when it comes to getting you there, so many marketers do it so damn wrong. They drive you crazy, flash strobes at you, get in your face and spew spittle on you as they talk.  They pounce on you as you enter the store, and spam you for eternity once you leave.

In an article in The Economist late last year, Joe Staton, the head of JWT's Knowledge Center, summed it up best when he said:

“Selling people things has become more difficult than it has ever been.”

And for good reason.  The problem is simple, and deep-rooted:

People don’t want to be sold.

When I was at Just For Laughs, I would be deluged with hundreds of phone calls, emails, letters and packages every week by well-meaning-but-insanely-overbearing agents and managers, all trying to push their clients with bribes, threats, promises and oodles of dubious achievements like: “He’s the second hamburger in that hot new Wendy’s commercial!”

And I would tell them the same thing.

Over and over again:

Don’t try to sell me;
just make it easy
for me to buy.

Let me discover your product, service or offer.

Don’t make me feel that somehow, it was forced on me.

Don’t, not for a second, make me feel that the decision was yours, not mine.

Seth Godin (yes, here I go again) has laid down a great post about four levels of marketing effort, the last being the Zen-like approach of No (Apparent) Effort. It’s almost an "anti-marketing," one which sells you by not selling.

Such is the raison d’etre of Surprise: Delight first…they’ll buy later.

As I said at the start...

Surprise is the
lubricant to “Yes.”

That’s the ultimate marketing destination.  The place we all wanna get to.

So stop pushing. Instead, make it easy for me to pull.

 

Theory 4--Hot Enough For Me

I'm at the NHL All-Star Game  in Dallas, and enjoying great TexMex food every chance I get (even breakfast).   At lunch today, a colleague asked: "What makes great Mexican food?"

My answer: "It's the same as what makes great Indian food...

If it makes my nose run and my eyes tear,
and I don't die the next day...
it's great Mexican food."

Speak tomorrow.

I hope...

Theory 3--Picking Up, and Picking Out, The Pieces

Quite the delight last week was getting an email from Rob Gerlsbeck, Associate Editor of Marketing Magazine. Every January, the mag kicks off the new year with a “Pop Culture Forecast,” which projects trends in food, music, video games, fashion and gives some insights into consumer behavior.

And this year, someone must’ve done sumptin’ wrong, as I’ve been asked to join a prestigious panel of five (well, formerly-prestigious now) and give my take on the subject.

One answer that didn’t make the cut was to the question of what I foresee as THE Huge Trend for 2007. Normally, this edit would’ve been forgotten and relegated to the ether, but after reading an eye-opening Time Magazine article called “How To Bring U.S. Schools Out of the 20^th Century” this past weekend, and seeing how my opinion synched with that of authors Claudia Wallis and Sonja Steptoe (who said that "In an age of overflowing and proliferating media, kids need to rapidly process what's coming at them and distinguish between what's reliable and what isn't,") I figured it fits well within Pow! as yet another one of my “Theories.”

So, the answer my friend,to the Trend question:

"The big trend I wish and pray for in ‘07 is one that will facilitate and manage the big trends of the past few years.

"In other words, I’m waiting for the trusted sage, the guru, the 'editor,' so to speak, who will help make sense of the all assault-our-senses clutter, be it the Web, TV’s 2,000-channel PVR universe, the retail environment—any place that is overrun with today’s perverse overabundance of choices.

"I am one of the most 'up on things' people I know, yet still feel that I’m missing way more than I catch, and worse yet, that the stuff caught isn’t the best out there.

"Like a great D.J. or a personal stylist, I want to depend upon empowered, uber-in touch people--not software--who will be able to recommend not only what I want to know about, but what they feel that I need to know about."

Not only was it a nice Surprise, but a very astute choice by Time when they named “Us” as People of The Year (that’s three magazine titles in less than a sentence, but I digress…) for 2006. For better or worse, we have democratized the media and the flow of information. I know I’m adding to the pile with this blog, but jeez, there’s so much out there, never mind who do you believe, but where do you start, and when does it end?

Perhaps the next big idea we'll pursue here at Airborne is a way to make sense of the info explosion, and find a way to parse it into single serving, hyper-relevant, knowledge nuggets. Like the iPod made the song more important than the album (and even the artist), maybe the future lies not in recommending blogs, websites, stores or TV shows, but individual posts, pages, sale items or show scenes.

By the way, the Pop Culture Forecast appears in Marketing Mag on January 8^th.

See you there, see you then.

Theory 2--Intimate Goes Big

Got an interesting comment on my Stay With Me A While post from consultant Michael Wagner of the White Rabbit Group, saying that the concept of longevity being Surprising is disturbing.

I agree with Michael (hence the post in the first place), but that may just be my age talking.  Longevity was instilled as a core value when I was young (something that lasts long = good; something that doesn’t = bad), but to my teenage sons, change and being able to adapt to it seems way more fundamentally important.  It's a generational thing, I guess.

Alas Michael, don’t despair. I believe that the passing of this core value will be counter-balanced by the resurrection of one seemingly tossed upon the scrap heap (three cheers for the new economy where nothing is ever truly thrown away, but “recycled”).  Hence yet another one of my theories (and you knew that I was due):

Intimacy is the next Google

Sounds wacky, but here’s what I mean: Anything you want to know, you can get in an instant. Virtually any major event—sports, entertainment, news—can be brought to your living room instantaneously, and presented on giant screens in HD with Dolby 5.1 surround sound.  Personal digital networks span the globe. And if we’re not satisfied with our own lives, there are numerous outlets for Second Lifes. The world is at your fingertips…but there are fewer and fewer real touchpoints.

That’s why I believe—never mind believe, why I’ll bet the farm—that intimacy will not only be cherished, but traded like a valuable currency.

In the near future, I foresee people paying for intelligent conversation like they pay for sex today. Universities will become like rock concerts, with the brightest profs commanding superstar salaries.

And speaking of rock concerts, while U2 blasts out of your home entertainment system, you’ll be paying thousands of dollars for intimate audiences with society’s smartest and most intriguing in cozy surroundings. (The next logical step to events like Salim Khoja’s Power Within conferences, which consistently sell out and attract thousands to mega convention centers.)

You may say I’m a dreamer...but I actually tested this one out. Last November, to celebrate our wedding anniversary, my wife and I invited 45 friends to our house and treated them—and I do mean “treat” in the most majestic of ways—to an acoustic living-room concert by one of my all-time favorite bands, England’s The Strawbs.  Three musicians in front of the fireplace playing, and the rest of us totally absorbed on couches, cushions, standing in the hallway...as one. To this day, I STILL get glowing comments from those who were there about the magic spirit of that evening, and wide-eyed inquiries from those who had heard about it from others.

So, if you’re a Silicon Valley VC looking for the next big opportunity to bring to scale, look for scaling it the other way. I guess Seth Godin said it best with the title of his last book: Small Is The New Big. 

Well, it WILL be.  Mark my words. 

Theory 1

I have a theory (actually, I have many, hence the quantifying nature of this post's title), and it goes like this:

"Everyone's a Kid in Disneyland."

Here's what the hell it means:  I don't care if you're a CEO of a Fortune 500 company, a resident of an Oklahoma trailer park, a visitor from New Guinea or the guitarist for an emo band--when you're in Disneyland, you are equal.  You may marvel at different things and at different degrees, but you marvel nonetheless.  You can resume your hierarchal identities and self-importance outside the gates, but inside 'em, you are one homogeneous mass of wide-eyed, open-mouthed, finger-pointing goofballs.

And there's nothing wrong with that.  That's what Surprise does to us. Cause and effect.  Hallelujah!

The point of all this relates to the date of this post--October 31.  Hallowe'en.

That's when many offices, schools and other edifices that gather people together become Disneyland...for a day, at least.  Too bad you can't be here at Airborne Entertainment and hear the squeals as countless employees come through the door in various stages of costume.  We are all one mass of goof.  The bald guy's wearing a wig (he's at the extreme left in the photo below); the demure woman is in a karate outfit, the CFO is dressed like a witch, my partner is in Pimp garb, the new kid is in a honeybear costume (well, at least that's what I think it is), and so on. Some people go against the grain of their personalities, others further exploit their stereotypes.  No matter what, the Surprise and delight as each Airborner makes his or her grand appearance is a blast.

We'll wait until next year to do it all again, but the element of Surprise is sending waves of pleasure throughout the 7th floor of 3575 St. Laurent.

Somewhere, perhaps somewhere very cold, Uncle Walt is smiling.